Working papers
“Household-level welfare effects of land expropriation: Evidence from China” – Submitted
Working paper here
AbstractA number of developing countries use land expropriation policies to expand cities and develop peri-urban areas. In China alone, an average of 1,600 square kilometers were expropriated annually between 2004 and 2018. The impact of this urban development strategy on expropriated households is not well-understood. I estimate the causal effect of expropriation on Chinese households’ livelihood choice and earned income, relying on panel data and comparison to non-expropriated households to observe how household-level outcomes change in response to expropriation. Controlling for baseline outcomes, I find that for at least the first two years, expropriation reduces household agricultural participation and production but does not increase other types of income-generating activities. The result is reduced food security and ability to earn income. Compensation paid to households does not fully offset these effects in cases where households lose all their land or are uncompensated. These findings suggest concrete policies governments can implement to lessen the negative welfare impacts of urban development on expropriated households: higher compensation rates, development of rural non-agricultural labor markets, and direct food assistance to expropriated households.
“Who cares and who shares? Caregiving in the household” (with Elizabeth King and Jooyeoun Suh) – Submitted
Working paper: CWE-GAM Working Paper Series: 21-07
AbstractThis paper examines the magnitude of unpaid care work performed within households and how that work is shared among household members. Using nationally representative time-use survey data from three countries, we develop a time-use-based approach to examine the presence of economies of scale and economies of scope in family caregiving. Ghana, Mongolia, and South Korea differ with respect not only to their level of economic development but also to their average household size, demographic structure, and gender norms. Yet, controlling for household characteristics, there are striking similarities in the allocation of care work within households in these countries. We find significant evidence of substitution between men and women, particularly in childcare, as well as economies of scale in the care of young children by women in all three countries and by men in Mongolia and Korea. We also explore the evidence for economies of scope in household care work, but characteristic limitations of time-use survey data make it difficult to discern them clearly.
Publications
“Demographic, health and economic transitions and the future care burden.” (2021) with Elizabeth M. King, Maria S. Floro, and Jooyeoun Suh. World Development, 140. (open access)
Previous version: CWE-GAM Working Paper Series: 20-08
AbstractThis paper estimates the future global demand for caregiving, taking into account projected shifts in population growth, labor force participation, and health status. We use UN population projections as well as labor force participation and morbidity rates to obtain an aggregate picture of the care need relative to the potential supply of caregiving in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, the extensive margin of the care burden in the future in these groups of countries. We then apply time-use survey data in three countries to estimate the intensive margin of the care burden that falls on households in these different settings. We show that gender norms about caregiving, expectations about the family’s role in care work (such as time investments in children), and typical care arrangements combined with demographic, labor, and health trends together lead to widely different estimates of the intensive margin of the care burden. Our results highlight the importance of targeted, gender-aware care policies in alleviating the burden of unpaid caregiving on households, as well as emphasize the magnitude of time spent on unpaid caregiving.
Other research
Reports
FAI Economic Commentary, 2022 Q3 (October 2022) – with Mairi Spowage, Benjamin Cooper, Calum Fox, and Kate Milne
Understanding the impact of Covid-19 on income: labor market changes and policy solutions (October 2022) – with Emma Congreve and David Eiser
Policy briefs and blog posts
The rationale for employability support (October 2022) – with Emma Congreve
A massive day in politics north and south of the border (October 2022) – with Mairi Spowage, Emma Congreve, James Black, Adam McGeoch, Benjamin Cooper, Rob Watts, Allison Catalano, Calum Fox, Ciara Crummey, Jack Williamson, and Kate Milne
“Estimating the paid care sector in South Korea” (2021) – with Jooyeoun Suh
“Estimating the unpaid care sector in South Korea” (2021) – with Jooyeoun Suh
Presentations
“Scottish labour market trends 2019-22” (with Emma Congreve and David Eiser; Scottish Government Covid-19 Learning and Evaluation Oversight Group, August 2022, virtual)
“Communication between migrants and sending households: Evidence from Indonesia” (IAFFE Conference, June 2022, Geneva, Switzerland)
“Migration as a coping mechanism for land expropriation in rural China” (AU Economics Graduate Research Seminar Series, July 2021, virtual)
“Who cares? Sharing the burden of family caregiving in Ghana, Mongolia, and South Korea” (IAFFE Conference, June 2021, virtual)
“Demographic, health and economic transitions and the future demand for caregiving” (CWE-GAM Project Seminar Series, June 2020, Washington, DC)
“Out-migration and the time use of left-behind household members” (IATUR Conference, July 2019, American University, Washington, DC)
“Out-migration, remittances, and the time use of left-behind household members” (IAFFE Conference, June 2019, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK)
“Estimating the demand for care in developing countries: Some methodological issues” (with Elizabeth King; CWE-GAM Project Annual Meeting, October 2018, Berlin, Germany)
“Migrating toward risk: An analysis of gender and HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe” (with Catherine Hensly; Interdiscipinary Association for Population Health Sciences Conference, October 2018, Washington, DC)